As Premier Christy Clark prepares her B.C. Liberal government for its fourth term in power, she may be thinking she'll be facing a political opposition that is spent, demoralized and likely about to be consumed by internal strife.
But while that may describe the shattered New Democratic Party, Clark would be wise to realize opposition to her government can take the form of other entities.
Both the B.C. Teachers Federation and the unionized support staff in the K-12 education system may be in a position to take job action in the fall.
Clark has re-issued her idea of a 10-year contract with B.C.'s teachers, and has gone further by formally making it her government's position at the negotiating table. The 10-year plan was largely dismissed when Clark first floated it, but that's because it seemed part of her ongoing election campaign and not representative of actual policy.
But now that she has won a mandate from the voters, the 10-year contract proposal has to be taken more seriously. Of course, that doesn't make it any easier to achieve at the bargaining table.
Details haven't been made public, but I suspect the government's proposal will include some kind of wage indexing to ensure teachers get at least the average of public sector union wage increases every year of the contract, plus some kind of guaranteed funding increase to address class size and composition.
As well, look for the government wanting more "flexibility" to be incorporated in the system, with the argument that flexibility will allow for savings to be realized, with those savings passed on in turn to teachers and the issues they deem most important.
It will be an interesting set of negotiations, but I have a hard time believing the BCTF leadership will sign such a long-term deal.
This brings us to an interesting question: will the B.C. Liberal government impose a 10-year deal if one can't be freely negotiated?
As much as some members of the government caucus might want to do just that, I doubt the courts would allow such a long deal to be imposed on a collective bargaining process.
Still, it's clear the B.C. Liberals are intent on trying a radically different approach in this round of talks with the BCTF. Just days after the election, they bailed on the current set of negotiations, even though the union said progress was being made, in favour of shifting talks towards the 10-year plan.
As for the unionized support staff, they're looking for a wage increase in the neighbourhood of two per cent a year.
This sets the stage for a possible confrontation between the unions and the B.C. Liberal government in the fall. Of course, it's quite likely the government will simply impose a contract on both unions if they can't be negotiated and if job action becomes problematic.
Nevertheless, this situation could be Premier Christy Clark's first real test as an elected premier with a mandate.
It is imperative that her government delivers its budget with its projected surplus if it wants to establish credibility when it comes to budget-making. This means there is very little money for wage increases in the education sector.
So to get to that magic land of a balanced budget, Clark will have to hold firm against two public sector unions.
Both unions no doubt expected to be dealing with a newly elected NDP government in contract talks, and probably assumed they were in for an easier ride.
But the upset win by the B.C. Liberals changed many things, not the least of which has to be the expectations of the public sector unions. They are about to discover the new sheriff in town is actually still the old one, but her hold on the job is much stronger now.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC.
