The luxury home market in Greater Vancouver is seeing a significant drop in sales numbers, although prices haven’t gone down as much as you might think, says one expert.
So far in 2025, there have been 86 detached sales over $5 million, with an average price of $6.6 million and a median price of $5.9 million, according to MLS data provided to BIV by Mike Rampf, advisor with Engel & Völkers Vancouver.
That’s compared to 140 detached sales over $5 million this time last year, when the average price was $7.1 million and the median price was $6 million.
This 39 per cent drop in luxury detached sales therefore came with a seven per cent decline in average price and a two per cent decline in median price.
Rampf said a $44-million sale and other outliers affected last year’s average price but the median price tells the true story.
“The middle range of sales aren’t as bad as the media is essentially saying. Pure stats are the numbers have softened, the value of real estate has softened, but not as bad as everyone is assuming in the higher-end price range,” he said.
The luxury condo market is also holding despite a similarly large decline in volume, Rampf said.
So far in 2025, there have been 20 attached sales over $4 million, with an average price of $5.7 million and a median price of $5.2 million.
That’s compared to 32 attached sales over $4 million this time last year, when the average price was $5.5 million and the median price was $4.8 million.
This 38 per cent fall in luxury condo sales was therefore accompanied by increases in average and median prices.
“You can read a hundred different articles and you can get different intel and you can read it and perceive it differently,” Rampf said.
“But just looking at the stats that have sold on MLS, it is quite interesting that the condo market in Greater Vancouver in the luxury market is actually holding quite well.”
Rampf said there’s a lot of inventory in Vancouver’s downtown core, but return-to-office mandates could drive a resurgence in luxury condo demand.
“During COVID, we had clients move to Nelson, and then all of a sudden the boss is saying, ‘Actually you need to come into the office a few more days,’ so their life in Nelson is now being squeezed,” he said.
“They are being pushed back to the downtown core, so we’re starting to see people moving back closer to their offices.”
Financial institutions, watched closely by other employers, have been recalling their workers, with new four-day in-office policies by Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSX:TD) and Royal Bank of Canada (TSX:RY) coming into effect this fall.
Meanwhile, Greater Vancouver’s “ultra-luxury” segment saw eight sales over $10 million so far this year, compared to 14 such sales during the same period in 2024.
Lower sale volumes across the board—detached, attached and ultra-luxury—suggest a mismatch between buyer and seller expectations.
“I think buyers are reading articles saying the market’s taking a massive turn. Sellers spoke to their agent or advisor and got a number from them,” Rampf said.
“With the market shift, [sellers] haven’t adjusted their expectations and have this phantom value of their home that was yesterday’s value and not today’s."
