B.C.’s Lower Mainland housing market gained momentum in July as easing economic and tariff uncertainty likely drew buyers back into the market after a spring pullback. MLS sales in the Metro Vancouver/Abbotsford-Mission region reached 3,397 in July. This was still 3.2 per cent lower than a year ago, but the decline narrowed from the 9.5 per cent drop in June. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales rose 11 per cent by our calculation, marking a third straight increase following an April trough.
Nevertheless, sales remain weak with July same-month sales, the lowest since 2022 and 20 per cent below the 15-year same-month average. Buyers are still hesitant amidst a challenging economic environment and affordability conditions. The regional housing market remains well supplied even as higher sales help to churn units. New listings are trending lower but still historically elevated with investors and homeowners selling into a weak market, while active listings remained at the highest levels in more than a decade, notwithstanding a dip from recent months. At about 13 per cent, the sales-to-active listings ratio points to an ongoing buyer’s market, albeit with some firming.
The average home price was $1.17 million, edging down after June’s increase but remained steady on a seasonally adjusted basis. Year-over-year, prices fell 1.9 per cent but were consistent with levels seen at the beginning of the year. Levels are still nine per cent lower than peak 2022. In contrast, the constant-quality home price index nudged lower again in July by 0.1 per cent (seasonally adjusted) and fell 3.6 per cent year-over-year with similar declines across the detached and condominium markets. The index is less volatile than the average price and a better indication of trends but also lags turning points. Broadly, pricing conditions are likely to remain subdued amidst low sales and persistent economic uncertainty.
Employment in B.C. rolled back sharply after four consecutive monthly gains, dropping by 0.5 per cent (16,300 people) in July. Year-over-year employment growth in B.C. is still at 1.4 per cent, just slightly below the national performance of 1.5 per cent. The province’s unemployment rate rose to 5.9 per cent from 5.6 per cent. The labour force participation rate continued to retreat after surging in May. B.C.’s labour force fell 0.3 per cent (9,600 people) following a decline in June. The working age population growth held at a modest 0.1 per cent.
During the month, full-time employment led the overall decline. Full-time employment fell by 1.2 per cent (-29,300 people) while part-time employment gained by 2.2 per cent (13,000 people). The Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area reported a 2.2 per cent decrease in its employment level, while the unemployment rate rose to 6.1 per cent from 5.8 per cent in June.
By sector, declines were seen in both services-producing industries (-0.3 per cent or 8,400 people) and goods-producing sectors (-1.5 per cent or 7,900 people). Construction sector saw the largest loss in employment (-2.9 per cent or 7,600 people) in the goods sectors, while declines also reported in other sectors such as natural resources (-5.4 per cent or 2,500 people) and manufacturing (-0.4 per cent or 800 people). Persistent weak housing market performance may have paused construction activities.
Notable gains in employment were seen in wholesale and retail trade (0.7 per cent or 3,000 people).
Bryan Yu is chief economist at Central 1.
