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Premier needs conservative vote to win

Premier Christy Clark has attracted a lot of attention from her recruitment of key aides from the Stephen Harper government, but I haven't seen much evidence that it has resulted in a noticeable right-wing shift in her administration.

Premier Christy Clark has attracted a lot of attention from her recruitment of key aides from the Stephen Harper government, but I haven't seen much evidence that it has resulted in a noticeable right-wing shift in her administration.

As a result, it follows that wooing supporters who have strayed to the B.C. Conservative party back to the B.C. Liberal fold is going to require more than just a change in personnel and the odd photo op with Harper.

Oh sure, there was the dust-up between reporters and her new communications director - a former press secretary to Harper - over a lack of access to the premier in Vancouver last week that had everyone wondering whether this was the first clue a Harper-like approach to governing was occurring.

It was assumed this controlling approach would find its way into the premier's office, but other than the aforementioned incident in Vancouver, this has not happened.

Clark makes herself available on a regular basis to the media and so far hasn't invited comparisons to the prime minister when it comes to media relations.

She'd be well-advised not to go down that road anyway. The relationship between the B.C. media and the premier has always been an informal, accessible one. Any attempt to cut the media off from questioning her or her ministers would simply blow up in the government's face.

The other key aide now working in her office is Ken Boessenkool, a former Harper aide who is now her chief of staff. His rightwing credentials are impeccable, but there's not much evidence of them influencing government policy.

Clark likes to boast that her government's latest budget is the "most conservative" one in the country.

But does a truly conservative budget collect more than $1 billion in additional taxes, or raise the provincial debt by almost $7 billion in one year?

Clark's support of such things as the new transit levy in Metro Vancouver, the carbon tax and a spiraling provincial debt load does little to appease the hardcore conservative voter.

Until she finds a way to bring those voters back into her party's camp, her re-election chances are doomed.

The first evidence of whether she's done enough to win those voters back will be seen relatively soon. The upcoming by-elections in Port Moody-Coquitlam and Chilliwack-Hope will test the strength of the Conservatives, and provide a real measure of that party's impact.

In the 2009 general election, the Conservative candidate in Chilliwack-Hope received just seven per cent of the vote, and the party didn't even field a candidate in Port Moody-Coquitlam.

This time, the party is running two credible candidates and both will likely make a strong impression.

In this province, history shows governments rarely win by-elections.

The by-election in Chilliwack-Hope could be particularly telling. This has all the earmarks of a genuine three-way race and it is conceivable the Liberals could finish third.

The NDP usually gets about a third of the vote in that riding, and will likely fare a little better this time. But the key numbers to watch will be how the other two parties split the remaining vote.

The result in Chilliwack-Hope will show whether Clark's insistence that she's really a conservative deep down is actually resonating with disaffected Liberal voters.

I have a feeling she still has a lot of convincing to do on that front. Hiring a couple of people from Harper's office can only take you so far, and the Liberals have a long road ahead of them when it comes to recovering support.

Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC.