As the clock ticks ever closer to the day the federal government decides whether to give the Northern Gateway pipeline project final approval, everything Prime Minister Stephen Harper has to say about the subject will increasingly be analyzed to the point of silliness.
Take his appearance in B.C. last week, when he appeared in front of a business-friendly audience and took softball questions from a business group's CEO (heaven forbid that an actual journalist be allowed to ask any questions).
There was no real news generated, but his comments on the pipeline garnered headlines and television coverage. But his comments were cautious and almost elliptical in nature and added about as much clarity to the government's position as results when you shake a bottle of muddy water to see things more clearly.
Common wisdom holds that Harper wants the pipeline to be built, but the issue has become such a political hot potato there is rising speculation his government may ultimately bale on the project. And since no one but Harper knows the answer to what he's going to decide, everything he says about it is pored over like the proverbial tea leaves.
In Vancouver, the fact he said the Northern Gateway project was not a sure thing created a buzz that he was opening the door to bolt on it. But, really, what did anyone expect him to say?
Of course, he has to stress the need for strong environmental standards attached to the project. Not to do so would invite condemnation from all sorts of quarters.
Instead of over-analyzing his non-committal comments about the pipeline, it makes more sense to examine his style of governing and how his government has handled various hot button issues.
It has become very apparent over the years that Harper shapes policies that are favoured by his welldefined voter base. It is not an approach aimed at gaining the support of a majority of the public, but instead is designed to maintain the roughly 40 per cent of the electorate that will keep him in power.
Faced with a divided political opposition, Harper knows full well that even if opinion polls show that 60 per cent of the population oppose the Northern Gateway pipeline (recent polls shows the project is still opposed by a majority in B.C., but that figure has shrunk), that's not enough to decide an election.
In the last federal election, Harper's Conservatives took more than 45 per cent of the popular vote in B.C. and 21 or 36 ridings in the province. Only one of the party's victories - Vancouver Island North - was even remotely close. The other wins were by large margins.
Despite the well-organized opposition to the Northern Gateway pipeline, it's hard to see much political upside attached to Harper walking away from backing the project.
It's not as if the environmental activists and New Democrats leading the charge against the pipeline would even remotely come close to supporting him at election time were he to kill the pipeline.
The key question to ask is whether that 45 per cent of the electorate who supported his party last time - a group of voters presumably older and less enthusiastic about environmental protection at all costs - would continue to support him if he were to turn his back on a project reviled by environmentalists, but backed by the very people who put him in office in the first place.
That is the thing to keep in mind when trying to determine whether the prime minister has got Northern Gateway's back at the end of the day. Until he and his government make their call, trying to overanalyze his careful public musings about the matter may not count for much.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC
