The B.C. Teachers' Federation is about to be given the right to engage in a full-scale strike, something many of its members have been demanding for years. But they better be careful what they wish for.
The public simply won't tolerate prolonged work stoppages that close schools behind picket lines. I would guess a teachers' strike would last a maximum two weeks before public pressure mounts on the provincial government to end the dispute through legislation.
Granting teachers the power to strike is part of Education Minister Peter Fassbender's interesting pitch to the BCTF, and so far the BCTF has tentatively expressed interest in what he has to say, but has also made it clear that it's time to "show us the money."
And there doesn't appear to be much money to be had. Fassbender wants a 10-year deal with the union, but with provincial finances expected to be fairly bleak for the next few years, it's hard to see how the BCTF would be motivated to sign a long term deal that gives its members minimal pay raises for that stretch.
Nevertheless, it's too early to completely write off the chances of a longterm deal being reached. The government has signalled it's willing to be creative and bend a bit to meet some of what the BCTF is looking for in certain areas.
For example, Fassbender has said more items can be bargained at the local level rather than the provincial level, which may meet a long-standing demand by the BCTF.
He has also agreed to have face-to-face negotiations between the central government and the union, something the BCTF has been calling for.
Fassbender has taken away the provincial bargaining authority of the B.C. Public Sector Employees Association and has put it in the hands of two people: Health Employers Association Michael Marchbank, and long-time labor negotiator Peter Cameron.
In elbowing BCPSEA aside, Fassbender has removed school trustees, who had representation on the BCPSEA board, from the bargaining process. This is not necessarily a bad thing, given that school trustees, who are elected by a relatively small part of the population, can't point to any great success that is due to their presence at the provincial bargaining table.
Cameron is an interesting choice here. His background includes working for a fairly militant union, CAIMAW, back in the 1980s. Since then he has emerged as a top labour negotiator and mediator, and if anyone can pull off a miracle deal it's him.
While a 10-year deal seems like a remote possibility, I wouldn't discount the chances of, say, a fiveyear contract.
Given the government's tight money situation, such a contract would have to be back-ended loaded, meaning any wage hikes and big funding lifts would come in the last years of the deal rather than the first two years.
Would the BCTF agree to a contract that has no wage increases for the first two years, but then gives hikes of around three per cent in each of the next three years of a contract? If the government also agreed to increase funding to address class composition and class size in the back end of the contract, along with assigning more items to local bargaining, the roots of a contract start to become visible.
Of course, Fassbender may discover, as his predecessors in the portfolio did, that the BCTF isn't really capable of true collective bargaining and so any horse-trading that traditionally goes on in negotiations just doesn't happen. But the leadership of the BCTF has changed since the last contract round.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC.
