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Column: COVID deniers, stock speculators and science

Perspectives backed up by confirmation bias
Richard Vetter
Richard Vetter (WealthSmart)
Richard Vetter is a columnist with the Richmond News.Richard Vetter

Interesting times like these give us interesting stories that we can learn from. Let me tell you a few. 

While walking in the parking lot of a local shopping mall, a man drove past us, leaned out of his truck, pumped his fist, and yelled: “Yeah, no masks!” He clearly thought we were allies in his crusade, as we normally don’t wear masks when we are outside and alone. He should have reserved his glee till we masked up close to the store we were heading to! 

In the past months, I’ve also had an interesting discussion with people reluctant to get vaccinated because of stories they have heard through social media about apparent dangers lurking behind our massive global vaccine rollouts. In all cases, the individuals felt that the very real risk of being infected by the COVID-19 didn’t warrant the supposed risk that vaccination carried. 

And on a seemingly unrelated note, a client transferred investment accounts last year to another advisor because I refused to predict what the markets would do in the wake of COVID-19 stock market volatility. 

All cases exhibit a disregard for actual data proven through the time-tested scientific method, namely: 

  1. Masks work. They work especially in restricting the spread of potential viruses embedded in the microscopic droplets of breath vapour that we exhale about every three to four seconds. 

  2. Vaccines work. Because of vaccines, global mortality rates have plummeted, and we live longer, more vibrant lives. As vaccination rates improve around the world, we are seeing a very measurable decline in COVID-19 infections and more, importantly significant drops in the death rate, especially in countries with higher vaccination rates. 

  3. Every piece of news that we know about has immediately been factored into stock prices. The science of Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) proves that this is so. It is therefore impossible to speculate on future stock price movements other than to say that, in the long run, we expect stock prices to go up as compensation for the risk we take when investing. 

It’s tempting to judge, but that gets us nowhere. The fifth habit in Stephen Covey’s book 7 Habits of Highly Effective People asks us to “seek first to understand, then to be understood.”  

The fact is that anti-maskers, vaccine deniers and stock speculators aren't necessarily ignorant. Rather, they all simply exhibit something called confirmation bias. The legal profession uses it all the time in order to carefully select facts that back up a certain position. Confirmation bias is like how we go shopping or graze through a buffet dinner. We pick what we like and ignore everything else. When our health is at stake though, science provides a better path. 

Canadians have done a phenomenal job in slowing down the spread of this virus through safety protocols and getting vaccinated. The coming month is critical in getting back to a world where we are confident in being what we are made for -- community! 

Stay safe, get vaccinated and stop trying to speculate in the stock market!  

Richard Vetter is a Certified Financial Planner and owner of WealthSmart Inc.