The next provincial election is supposedly not until May 2013, but we will have two critical by-elections before then - and there could be more.
Two B.C. Liberal MLAs have quit (or have served notice of quitting) and that means a byelection must be held within six months of them giving up their seats.
The Port MoodyCoquitlam seat left vacant by Iain Black must be filled by next April, while the Chilliwack-Hope riding that Barry Penner will give up early in the New Year likely has to be filled by sometime in June.
But Premier Christy Clark has indicated she may hold both by-elections at the same time, which may make things more interesting.
Will more Liberal MLAs decide to quit early, thus creating a scenario for three or even four by-elections to occur at once?
Clark said she is looking for "renewal" of her political party, as it desperately tries to rebrand itself in ways that provide distance from former premier Gordon Campbell.
She equates that renewal with old faces leaving and new ones coming on board, so she appears not to be particularly upset that Black and Penner have left.
Will she pressure other sitting MLAs who may not run again into leaving sometime next spring to allow for the chance for some new blood to be injected early?
The MLAs would have to be located in so-called "safe" Liberal seats to provide the best chance of hanging on to the riding.
That's one of the rumours making the rounds at the legislature. Ridings in West Vancouver, the Fraser Valley and the Okanagan are where the Liberals won by the widest margins in 2009, so keep an eye on whether any MLAs from those areas pull the plug.
Based on the last election results, and the current level of party support in opinion polls, it would appear the NDP has a pretty good shot at winning the Port Moody seat.
The NDP has recruited former Port Moody mayor Joe Trasolini as its candidate this time, which should give the party's chances a big lift. Of course, Trasolini may bring with him some baggage, but his name recognition will go a long way.
The Chilliwack-Hope riding is a safer bet for the Liberals, at least on paper. Penner won there in 2009 by more than 20 percentage points, or more than 3,300 votes.
B.C. Conservative leader John Cummins has said he won't run in that riding's by-election, which doesn't exactly make him or his party look particularly confident.
The Conservatives grabbed more than seven per cent last time, so it would need to almost triple its vote in the by-election to allow the NDP to win through the back door.
If there are only two by-elections and the NDP and the Liberals split the outcome, the result is not necessarily that terrible for Clark. Governments rarely win by-elections anyway.
However, if Clark can fashion a scenario that sees a couple of other safe Liberal seats open up and then follows that up with by-election wins in those ridings, that could provide the kind of momentum she desperately needs to beat back the Conservative vote.
Winning a couple of contests in West Vancouver, the Fraser Valley and/or the Okanagan would at least provide evidence that the B.C. Liberals' chances for victory in the next provincial election are not dead, and in fact are quite alive.
On a personal note, it's with mixed feelings that I watch Penner leave the political scene.
It's great news for his young family, of course, but Penner is one of the bestliked MLAs on either side of the house.
Penner earned a reputation as a decent, hard-working MLA in his 15-year career. He shall be missed.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC.
