The announcement by newspaper mogul David Black that he wants to build a $13 billion oil refinery near Kitimat may be hailed by some as a "game changer" for the proposed Enbridge pipeline project, but a more accurate description may be "pipe dream."
While Black's proposal instantly changed the parameters of at least part of the debate over the pipeline, it's still far from clear whether his idea will ever achieve reality. Certainly, Black's refinery pitch has shook things up. Enbridge's Northern Gateway project has met widespread opposition based on a number of concerns.
A refinery would answer at least one of those concerns, but it leaves a host of others on the table. A refinery would mean tankers wouldn't have to carry bitumen and therefore the risk that a catastrophic spill of the noxious substance would be eliminated.
Black's proposal also boasts another big benefit. A refinery would create thousands of jobs during its construction, and an estimated 3,000 permanent jobs when it was operational.
The refinery would be one of the biggest valueadded industrial projects B.C. has ever seen. Aside from huge job creation, it would also increase revenues to government through taxation.
But for all the upside that comes with such a refinery, there remain some significant downsides in the minds of many of the pipeline's foes. Not the least of those problems is the fact that a pipeline still has to be built across northern B.C. to feed the refinery, and that pipeline would be carrying that noxious bitumen, thus exposing hundreds of streams and waterways to a potential spill.
Opponents are also uncomfortable with oil tankers travelling through Douglas Channel to get to and from the refinery's location. Even though they won't be carrying bitumen, many think that if one of those tankers were to run aground a resulting spill could still be disastrous.
Apart from not resolving all environmental issues, a refinery also doesn't fit with the current export plan for Alberta's tar sands.
The idea behind Northern Gateway is to push Alberta crude to China.
The trouble is that China wants raw materials from its trading partners, not refined ones. The country wants to do its own refining, for a variety of reasons.
Of course, if the refinery and pipeline did indeed proceed, it may force China to change its policy, if taking refined oil became their only access to the tar sands (keep in mind that China has also invested billions of dollars buying up the companies that are mining the oil sands, a factor that could play a role in this debate).
Another potential obstacle to Black's plan is the party that could very well form the government in this province next spring. The NDP's energy critic says the refinery does not change his party's opposition.
John Horgan, who may very well be B.C.'s energy minister by the time Black's environmental permit application is heard, says he's not opposed to a refinery per se, but says Kitimat is the wrong location for it. As for the Clark government, it is a big backer of liquefied natural gas plants and pipelines in the Kitimat region, but a refinery may not answer its stated concerns about B.C. bearing all the risk from the Enbridge pipeline.
A refinery doesn't appear to have lessened opposition among First Nations. Stewart Phillip, the president of the Union of B.C. Indian Chiefs, has already dismissed the refinery as a non-starter.
He's added a new element to the debate on the most contentious megaproject this province has seen in decades. And a guy who wants to invest $13 billion and create thousands of jobs shouldn't be dismissed out of hand.
Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global BC.
