A team going from worst to first in the division is nearly an annual occurrence in the NFL.
With last-place teams getting advantages like favorable schedules and higher draft picks, there have been 25 teams since the 2002 realignment that followed up a last-place finish with a division title the following year.
While no team pulled off the trick last season, it had happened least once in each of the previous four seasons. Perhaps no team is better positioned to do it this season than the San Francisco 49ers, who followed up a Super Bowl loss in the 2023 season with a 6-11 last-place finish in 2024.
The Niners were done in by a string of injuries to key players and now head into the 2025 season with the weakest projected schedule thanks in part to three games against fellow last-place teams Chicago, the New York Giants and Cleveland.
Here’s a look at the contenders based on their odds to finish first from BetMGM Sportsbook:
San Francisco 49ers
BetMGM odds to win division: +165.
Reason for optimism: The 49ers still have star power with players like Fred Warner, George Kittle, Nick Bosa, Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams and one of the top offensive coaches in the game in Kyle Shanahan. With the last-place schedule and a rotation that includes eight games against the weaker South divisions, the Niners are favored to win the NFC West.
Reason for pessimism: San Francisco let several defensive starters leave in the offseason as part of a movement to get cheaper and younger. But if their rookie class can't step in and contribute immediately, the defense could have some holes even with the return of coordinator Robert Saleh.
New England Patriots
BetMGM odds to win division: +475.
Reason for optimism: QB Drake Maye showed flashes as a rookie and should get a boost in Year 2 with a better coaching staff led by Mike Vrabel and coordinator Josh McDaniels.
Reason for pessimism: Maye still has very little support even after the offseason acquisitions of rookie lineman Will Campbell and veteran receiver Stefon Diggs.
Chicago Bears
BetMGM odds to win division: +550.
Reason for optimism: The Bears brought in the most highly sought after coaching candidate when Ben Johnson was hired after a strong run as offensive coordinator in Detroit. They also upgraded the interior of the offensive line by acquiring Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson in the offseason to help second-year QB Caleb Williams.
Reason for pessimism: Chicago is in a division with three returning playoff teams and has one of the more difficult schedules in the NFL. If Williams' struggles as a rookie were more about holding onto the ball too long instead of the surrounding environment, the upgrades might not be enough.
Tennessee Titans
BetMGM odds to win division: +800.
Reason for optimism: Last year's struggles delivered Tennessee the No. 1 overall pick. QB Cam Ward brings his playmaking ability to Tennessee and should be helped by an improved offensive line following the additions of Dan Moore and Kevin Zeitler and anticipated improvement from recent first-rounders JC Latham and Peter Skoronski.
Reason for pessimism: Ward doesn't have a strong group of pass catchers even after the signing of veteran Tyler Lockett and Tennessee hasn't done much to upgrade a defense that allowed 27.1 points per game last season.
New Orleans Saints
BetMGM odds to win division: +1,300.
Reason for optimism: The offense could get a boost if first-round tackle Kelvin Banks can step in immediately and receivers Chris Olave and Rasheed Shaheed are healthy.
Reason for pessimism: New Orleans has uncertainty at quarterback after Derek Carr's retirement and is counting on either second-round rookie Tyler Shough or 2024 fifth-rounder Spencer Rattler to perform at a high enough level to compete.
Las Vegas Raiders
BetMGM odds to win division: +1,500.
Reason for optimism: Perhaps no team upgraded at quarterback and head coach as much as the Raiders with Pete Carroll replacing Antonio Pierce at coach and Geno Smith coming in at quarterback after a platoon of Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell. The offense under new coordinator Chip Kelly could be intriguing with record-setting second-year tight end Brock Bowers and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty.
Reason for pessimism: Las Vegas is in a division that had three playoff teams last season, making it a difficult proposition to climb too high in the standings. There are major questions in the secondary that could prove fatal in a division with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Bo Nix.
New York Giants
BetMGM odds to win division: +2,800.
Reason for optimism: The Giants should have one of the top defensive lines with No. 3 overall pick Abdul Carter joining Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux. The return of left tackle Andrew Thomas after he missed 11 games last season should help boost the offense under new quarterback Russell Wilson.
Reason for pessimism: While Wilson may be an upgrade at quarterback, his play has fallen significantly since leaving Seattle following the 2021 season. New York traded up to draft Jaxson Dart in the first round but he might not be ready to take over as a rookie on a team that still has many holes on offense.
Cleveland Browns
BetMGM odds to win division: +3,000.
Reason for optimism: The Browns feature one of the game's top defensive players in four-time All-Pro Myles Garrett after he got a new contract last season and Kevin Stefanski has won AP Coach of the Year twice in five seasons with Cleveland.
Reason for pessimism: Cleveland is still searching for a QB three years after trading for Deshaun Watson. Veteran Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett and rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders are all in the mix but none provide immediate hope for success.
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AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl
Josh Dubow, The Associated Press
